Trump repeated the U.S. position on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, pointing to military success while signaling openness to negotiations. The permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 30 market sits at 47.5% YES, down from 57% a day ago.
Traders are recalibrating across several related markets. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement by April 30 sits at 3.1% YES, a steep drop from 50% a week ago. Surrendering enriched uranium by April 30 is at 2.3% YES, with traders skeptical about immediate concessions.
The peace deal market breaks down by deadline in a telling way. The April 30 sub-market is at 2.4% YES. Odds rise to 32.5% for May 31 and 47.5% for June 30. That 30-point jump between April and May suggests traders expect a specific development in mid-May.
The peace deal markets have volume at $854,504 in USDC over the past 24 hours. Order book depth shows it takes $27,666 to move the April 30 contract by five points, indicating real liquidity behind these prices.
Trump’s statements mix military pressure with diplomatic signaling. The peace deal probability appears tied to whether talks resume with concrete outcomes. Buying YES at 48¢ offers a 2.08x return if resolved by June 30, but that requires a diplomatic breakthrough within two months.
Watch for Islamabad mediation developments, hints of resumed talks from U.S. or Iranian officials, and shifts in military posture by either side, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.
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Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 32.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 46.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 40% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 26.5% | — | — | Trade → |
