President Trump spoke dismissively about Iran’s military capabilities, casting doubt on a ceasefire extension. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sit at 23.5% YES.
Trump’s remarks point to a hardline stance, moving markets tied to both the ceasefire and nuclear agreements. The April 22 peace deal market is unlikely to improve without concrete diplomatic progress. The April 30 market is at 43.5% YES, showing skepticism over a quick resolution. The May 31 market trades at 60.5% YES, with traders pricing in a possible breakthrough after April.
The US-Iran ceasefire market, with volume at $5,810 in actual USDC, shows a steep decline in confidence, now at 16.5% YES. Trump’s rhetoric could accelerate a market shift, with traders factoring in a likely end to the ceasefire absent a diplomatic turnaround.
For traders, Trump’s comments reshape expectations directly. At 15¢, a YES share on the April 22 peace deal pays $1 if successful, a 6.7x return. This bet requires a rapid diplomatic pivot that Trump’s current stance doesn’t suggest.
Watch for developments in the Islamabad talks and statements from Pakistan and Turkey, as any diplomatic overture could move these markets quickly.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 23.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 43.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 40.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
