Trump declared a ceasefire between the US and Iran, following a Pakistani proposal. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 are at 57% YES, up from 8% a week ago.
The announcement caused significant market movement. The April 7 market saw a 42-point spike at 10:33 PM as traders adjusted positions. The April 15 market jumped to 70.5%, showing increased confidence in a sustained halt. The April 30 market also rose to 72.5%.
Trading volume hit $3.74M in the last 24 hours, with a $21.49M face value. It takes $202 to move the June 30 market 5 points, indicating a thin order book. The largest move was the 42-point surge in the April 7 market, showing traders’ quick response to the announcement.
This ceasefire announcement could resolve the market in favor of a ceasefire by April 7. At 57¢, a YES share pays $1 if it resolves, a 1.75x return. Traders must decide if the ceasefire will hold until the deadline. Key to watch are any statements from the US or Iran that might affect the agreement.
Watch for further announcements from Trump and any military or diplomatic moves from the US, Iran, or intermediaries like Pakistan. Secretary of State Rubio’s next briefing could provide crucial updates on the ceasefire’s enforceability.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 57% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 72.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 86% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 87% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 93.9% | — | — | Trade → |
