Donald Trump criticized the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and his potential visit to China by May 31 dropped to 73.5% YES, down from 76% yesterday.
The Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed by Trump, with potential refunds of up to $175 billion. The May 31 market fell 2.5 points. The June 30 contract dropped to 81.0%, down from 84% yesterday. The April 30 market remains flat at 0.5% with six days until resolution.
Volume hit $54,216 in USDC over the last 24 hours, concentrated in the May 31 contract, which saw the largest single move: a three-point spike at 12:03 AM. It takes $5,541 to move this market five points, so it’s not easily pushed around by small trades.
The criticism may be more noise than a real shift in diplomatic strategy. A Supreme Court ruling on tariffs doesn’t directly change travel plans unless it triggers broader policy reversals. A YES share for Trump’s visit by May 31 pays 74¢ now, a 1.35x return if it resolves YES. Betting YES requires confidence that the diplomatic track stays on schedule despite the legal setback.
Watch for Trump or White House announcements about travel plans or new diplomatic engagements. Xi Jinping’s response, or silence, will matter. Karoline Leavitt’s press briefings are the most likely venue for any updates.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 81% | — | — | Trade → |
