Trump is weighing a resumption of bombing against Iran amid stalled talks. The market for Iran surrendering enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, dropped to 1.2% YES, down from 6% yesterday.
The April 30 contract plunged to 1.2%, with traders pricing in almost no chance Iran agrees to surrender its uranium stockpile by month’s end. The June 30 contract sits at 23.0% YES, a 3-point drop from yesterday. The gap between the April 30 and June 30 contracts tells traders this drags past any immediate deadline.
The US acquisition of Iranian uranium by May 31 contract fell to 6.5% YES from 12% a day ago. The April 30 contract is nearly flat at 0.4% YES, showing very low confidence in a near-term deal. The term structure points to any real movement coming much later: the December 31 market still holds at 27.5% YES.
Volume across these markets is $39,286 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. The largest single move was a 7-point spike on the June 30 contract. It takes $9,564 to shift the April 30 market by 5 points, which points to institutional positioning rather than retail activity.
Trump’s signaling of potential military action suggests a breakdown in diplomatic channels. A YES share at 1.2¢ would pay out massively if Iran capitulates, but that would require a sudden diplomatic breakthrough in the next six days, which nothing in the current situation supports.
Watch for the Pentagon’s next moves and any statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Changes in operational language or diplomatic overtures could shift these markets quickly.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 23% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 27.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 17.6% | — | — | Trade → |
