Trump hinted at a trip to Pakistan contingent on an Iran deal. The US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 22.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
Traders read Trump’s remarks as a positive signal for US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan. The April 30 market moved more sharply, rising to 41.5% YES from 17% a week ago. The May 31 and June 30 markets are at 57.5% and 70% respectively.
Why it matters
The term structure shows a 21-point jump between April 30 and May 31, which points to traders expecting a likely catalyst for progress in early May. Markets are pricing in a diplomatic breakthrough through Pakistan, with Sharif and Munir’s involvement gaining weight. Trump’s acknowledgment of Pakistan’s mediating role and Iran’s tentative agreement to US demands, including enriched uranium stockpile handover, point toward real de-escalation potential.
What to watch
Combined daily USDC volume across these markets reached $711,138, with a sharp move requiring $16,312. The largest single move was a spike at 2:24 PM, tracking trader response to the diplomatic signals. At 22.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a deal is struck by April 22, a 6.6x return. That bet requires belief in a swift resolution led by Islamabad.
Watch for Islamabad’s Round 2 talks and any official announcements. Key triggers: Trump or Pakistani officials confirming a deal, and Iran’s response.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 57.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 70% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 41.3% | — | — | Trade → |
