Donald Trump is weighing an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing oil market tensions. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 sits at 0.2% YES.
The prospect of de-escalation slashed odds across oil price markets. The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 contract is at 0.5% YES, down from 1% yesterday and 4% a week ago. The WTI Crude Oil Price in April market holds at 0.2% YES, with traders clearly skeptical that prices reach $160 before month-end.
The near-zero odds on $160 WTI aren’t moving. These markets have been reactive: a 50-point spike hit at 11:40 AM last week when geopolitical tensions were higher. But actual USDC traded is modest, at $1,012 across WTI markets and $754 in the crude oil high market, which points to thin conviction on both sides.
Trump’s consideration of reopening Hormuz shifts the framing from conflict to negotiation, which cuts the probability of sudden oil price surges. With only two days left until the April contracts resolve, the window for a dramatic price rally is nearly closed. Buying YES at 0.5¢ for a potential 200x return is a lottery ticket, not a strategic bet.
If Trump announces a formal agreement with Iran or a timeline for reopening the Strait, expect these markets to close out quietly. Watch for EIA data releases and any OPEC+ statements that could shift the calculus in the final hours.
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Crude Oil All Time High April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
