Trump has confirmed a China visit for May 14-15, 2026, pushing the Polymarket odds for a visit by May 31 to 89.5% YES, up from 76% a week ago.
Market reaction
The market for Trump’s visit by May 31 now sits at 89.5% YES. The April 30 visit market remains at 0.9% YES, effectively dead. The June 30 odds are at 92.5% YES, with only a 3-point gap between the May 31 and June 30 contracts.
The 89-point spread between the April 30 and May 31 contracts shows traders pricing the visit squarely in the May window, consistent with the confirmed dates. Daily volume on the May 31 market is $64,623 in USDC. The largest single move was a 1-point spike, suggesting steady accumulation rather than a sudden repricing event.
Why it matters
The confirmed summit dates come during active US-Iran tensions and ongoing US-China trade disputes. A YES share on the May 31 market currently costs about 10¢, offering a 10x return if the visit happens on schedule.
What to watch
Track statements from the White House and Chinese Foreign Ministry on summit logistics or scheduling changes. Escalation in the Iran conflict or new friction in US-China diplomatic channels could introduce delay risk and move these contracts.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 87.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 91.5% | — | — | Trade → |
