Trump’s cancellation of Kushner and Witkoff’s trip to Pakistan highlights divisions within Iran’s leadership. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 is at 3% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The April 30 permanent peace deal market has plummeted, with odds dropping from 61% a week ago. The May 31 contract sits at 24% YES, down from 72% on the same timeframe. The June 30 contract holds at 44% YES, which suggests traders expect some progress over the next two months even as near-term contracts collapse.
The Iranian uranium stockpile surrender by April 30 market shows the same skepticism, at just 2% YES. Trump’s comments about Iran’s internal discord make any near-term uranium agreement unlikely.
Trading volume across peace deal markets is $854,504 in USDC. It takes $27,666 to move the April 30 market 5 points, a moderate liquidity level that points to real trader participation rather than isolated speculative bets.
For traders, the pricing reflects deep negotiation difficulties. A YES share for the April 30 peace deal at 3¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 33x return. But with just six days left, that payout requires a sudden diplomatic breakthrough to justify the risk.
Watch for statements from Iran’s Assembly of Experts or any shift in IRGC rhetoric. Trump’s future comments on Truth Social could also move trader sentiment quickly.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 44.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 40% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 25.5% | — | — | Trade → |
