Trump’s cancellation of his Iran trip has pushed the odds of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 down to 6.5% YES, falling from 10% as diplomatic conditions deteriorate.
The Pahlavi entry market for June 30 is at 6.5% YES, requiring $7,632 to shift by 5 points. The December 31 market holds at 15.5% YES, suggesting traders expect conditions could improve later in the year.
The US-Iran permanent peace deal market by April 30 has collapsed to 2.6% YES, down from 10% a day ago. The May 31 market sits at 24.5% YES, and June 30 at 44.5% YES. That 22-point gap between April 30 and May 31 implies traders are pricing in a possible late-spring diplomatic window.
Volume is heavy. The US-Iran peace deal market has seen $854,504 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. Order book depth is thick too: $27,666 is needed to move the April 30 market by 5 points, pointing to serious capital and likely institutional positioning.
The cancellation fits a pattern of stalemate, with Trump’s rhetoric reading more as leverage than compromise. At 6.5¢, a YES on Pahlavi’s entry by June 30 pays $1, a 15.4x return. But that bet requires believing in a major diplomatic shift within 67 days.
Watch for Iranian Foreign Minister meetings or US diplomatic overtures. Any changes to the naval blockade or sanctions relief would move these markets fast.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Will Reza Pahlavi Enter Iran June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 44.5% | — | — | Trade → |
