Trump has canceled planned delegations and rejected the latest Iranian proposal. Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by April 30 sits at 0.5% YES, down from 11% a week ago.
The Iran uranium stockpile surrender by April 30 market has collapsed to 0.5% YES from 11% a week ago. The June 30 and December 31 markets hold at 21.5% and 39.5%, respectively, meaning traders see any resolution as months away at best.
Trump’s canceled visit to Pakistan is also showing up in the markets. Odds of him visiting by April 30 are at 0.5% YES, while the May 31 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 20% a week ago. The largest jump was a 42-point spike on a single order, which has since stabilized.
The April 30 surrender market has $2,975 in daily USDC volume, while Trump’s Pakistan visit market is far thinner, where $82 in daily trades can move odds 5 points. The largest move in the surrender market was a 49-point spike at 11:40 AM, likely from a single speculative order.
Trump’s rejection is a real setback, not noise. The Fox News source (tier 1) carried enough weight to force traders to reprice the probability of any near-term deal. At 0.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Iran agrees to surrender its stockpile by April 30, a 200x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a last-minute diplomatic reversal with no current basis.
Watch for any shift in language from Trump or Iranian leadership, particularly if intermediaries like Pakistan or Oman reengage. Any announcement of resumed talks could move these odds quickly.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 21.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 29.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 43.5% | — | — | Trade → |
