Trump’s Arizona speech criticized NATO as “absolutely useless” for its non-participation in the Iran conflict. US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 1.2% YES, up from 1% yesterday.
Trump’s rhetoric is moving the US withdrawing from NATO market. The market for a US withdrawal by December 31, 2026, is also drawing interest from the comments, though odds there aren’t immediately available. Traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of withdrawal given Trump’s history of NATO criticism. The limited actual USDC traded ($1,537/day) and a $3,948 cost to move the market by 5 points mean the book is thin enough that a single large order could shift prices meaningfully.
The criticism comes after NATO’s decision to stick to defensive measures and avoid direct involvement in the Iran campaign. The US withdrawal from NATO market could move higher if Trump escalates his rhetoric further or if reports surface of troop relocations from European bases.
At 1.2¢, a YES share pays $1 if the US withdraws by April 30, a 83.3x return. That bet requires believing Trump will act within 14 days.
Watch for Trump’s upcoming speeches and any Pentagon statements on troop movements. Senate discussions on NATO commitments could also move the market.
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Will Us Withdraw From Nato Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
