Trump claims Iran is in a “State of Collapse” and calls for the US to open the Strait of Hormuz. Odds for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 are at 0.5% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Trump’s remark points toward easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been a flashpoint following recent US-Israeli airstrikes. The oil all-time high market prices the likelihood of crude surpassing $120/barrel by April 30 well below where it was 24 hours ago. Only 6 days remain until resolution.
The same de-escalation read shows up in the WTI Crude Oil April market, where odds of hitting $160 have fallen to 0.3% YES from 1% yesterday. Volume is just $506 in USDC traded, meaning the market is thin and vulnerable to single large orders moving the price.
The order book in the all-time high market is similarly shallow: $695 to move 5 points. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point spike, which in a book this thin doesn’t take much capital to produce.
If Trump’s statement leads to an actual reopening of the Strait, supply concerns would ease considerably. At 0.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if oil prices surge, a 200x return. That bet requires believing a sudden geopolitical escalation will override the current de-escalation signal within six days.
Watch for official statements from the Pentagon or Iranian leadership. Any credible confirmation of talks or a formal stand-down would likely push oil price expectations lower still.
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Crude Oil All Time High April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
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