Trump’s call for ABC to fire Jimmy Kimmel has drawn attention to his insult-related prediction markets. The Trump’s Public Insults market is priced at 100% YES with six days until resolution.
Traders are treating another public insult as a certainty, given Trump’s ongoing feud with Kimmel and six days remaining before the April 30 deadline. The sub-market odds are locked at 100% across the board, leaving no room for an alternative outcome.
There’s no visible trading volume, which points to a lack of new entrants rather than declining interest. With every sub-market fully priced through the April 30 resolution, the market has effectively settled early.
Trump’s attack on Kimmel, which followed the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, fits his established pattern of targeting media figures publicly. At 100%, the market is pricing in zero chance that Trump refrains from further insults before the deadline. Any deviation from that pattern, however unlikely, would force traders to reassess their positions.
Watch for Trump’s upcoming statements and public appearances. Continued escalation or new targets would confirm what the market already expects. Any conciliatory or neutral remarks before April 30 would be the only thing capable of disrupting the current pricing.
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Will Trump Publicly Insult Someone On| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 12, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 13, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
