Trump called for Jimmy Kimmel’s firing over a controversial segment, and the Polymarket contract for whether Trump will publicly insult someone on April 11, 2026, sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The Trump Insult Prediction Market has every sub-market from April 11 to April 15, 2026, priced at 100% YES. Traders are treating public insults from Trump as a near-certainty on each of those dates. The market has no face value volume, meaning traders haven’t moved their positions or placed new bets.
Why it matters
The April 11 sub-market prices in absolute certainty of a public insult. The lack of actual trading volume suggests this confidence comes from entrenched expectations about Trump’s behavior rather than new money entering the market. Trump’s attack on Kimmel also coincides with an armed breach near the White House, though any connection between the rhetoric and the security incident is speculative.
What to watch
Trump’s social media channels, particularly Truth Social, and upcoming public appearances are the most likely sources of further insults. Any escalation in verbal attacks on media figures could generate new trading activity in these contracts.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Genius Fdv Above One Day After Launch| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20M | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6B | 2.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300M | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 74% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 83.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 12, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 13, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
Gloria API — Get prediction market signals delivered to your trading stack.
Join the Waitlist
