Trump called his would-be attacker a “sick lone wolf” during a “60 Minutes” interview, and King Charles III’s visit remains on track. The market on whether Trump will publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
## Market reaction
The Trump-Carlson insult market is priced at 100% YES, meaning traders see no remaining uncertainty. The “60 Minutes” interview didn’t move the number because there was nowhere for it to go. At 100%, the market already prices in Trump’s pattern of public confrontation, particularly during televised appearances.
## Why it matters
The “will Trump insult by April 30” market has $0 in trading volume. The odds have sat consistently high, matching Trump’s long record of confrontational public statements. A related market on Trump insulting someone on April 11, 2026, also reads 100% YES. Both markets reflect the same thing: traders treat Trump’s public insults as a near-certainty over any multi-week window.
## What to watch
With no money moving through these markets, there’s nothing to trade. A YES share at 100¢ pays $1, but zero volume means no opportunity to profit from price movement. The market is functionally closed.
Any new Trump statements, particularly on Truth Social, could affect less saturated markets. The Carlson-specific market is already at its ceiling, so the action, if any comes, will be elsewhere.
## API access
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Who Will Trump Publicly Insult April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 12, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 13, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
