President Trump declared “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, stating it remains “sealed up tight” until Iran agrees to negotiate. Odds for Trump lifting the blockade by May 31, 2026, have dropped to 71% YES, down from 82% a day ago.
The May 31 sub-market dropped 11 percentage points in 24 hours. Previous optimism that the blockade might lift has been replaced by pricing for a longer standoff, with 38 days left until resolution.
Volume is $27,582 in actual USDC traded, with $8,549 needed to move the odds by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest recent move was a 3-point drop at 5:36 AM. Face value sits at $35,317, but actual trades define the market’s depth and volatility.
Trump’s language signals a hard line, making a quick resolution unlikely. At 29¢, a NO share pays $1 if the blockade isn’t lifted by May 31, a 3.45x return. For YES odds to rebound, traders would need to see a significant diplomatic shift or a direct bilateral announcement.
Watch for new negotiations or statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi or the U.S. Navy. Any sign of talks progressing or military de-escalation could move odds in either direction.
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