President Trump told CNBC he anticipates a “great deal” with Iran. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April now sits at 43% YES, up from 36% a day ago.
The Iranian Demands Trump Agreement market saw YES odds climb 7 points in the last 24 hours. Traders appear to read Trump’s statement as a possible move toward concessions on sanctions. The US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal by April 22 market ticked up slightly to 14.5% YES, though it shows little new conviction about a comprehensive settlement.
Volume in the sanction relief market is $4,106 in actual USDC traded, with only $387 required to move the price 5 percentage points. The market is thin enough that relatively small trades can cause large swings. The peace deal market is far thicker at $547,661 in daily USDC volume, making it less reactive to speculative bets.
Trump’s statement could be strategic positioning or a signal of progress in back-channel talks. At 43¢, a YES share in the sanctions relief market pays $1 if Trump agrees to relief by April, a 2.33x return. The bet comes down to whether Trump’s rhetoric leads to concrete action before the deadline.
Next signals to watch: any official White House confirmation or Iranian responses via state media. Trump’s social media posts may also hint at a formalized agreement or a shift in negotiating posture.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 43% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
