Trump announced Iran’s agreement to suspend its nuclear program without a time limit, with no frozen U.S. funds released. The likelihood of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 is now at 39.5%, up from 12% a week ago.
The April 22 market saw a modest uptick, but the larger moves are in the longer-dated April 30 and May 31 markets. These are priced at 61.5% and 73.5%, respectively, showing traders expect a catalyst in the coming weeks.
The ceasefire end market moved in the opposite direction. Odds for the April 21 ceasefire end sit at 8%, down from 30% a week ago. Liquidity is thin enough that just $1,700 shifts the odds by five points.
This divergence suggests traders read Trump’s announcement as a genuine step toward a deal rather than a breakdown. It contrasts with previous assertions of long-term enrichment bans and facility dismantling. A 34¢ YES share on the April 30 market would pay 2.94x if peace is declared by then. The announcement matches U.S. demands but stops short of confirming asset thawing or Strait of Hormuz guarantees.
Watch for developments from the Islamabad talks and any Pentagon or White House statements. Trump’s rhetoric is one thing; concrete actions or reported deals would be a stronger signal for these markets.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 81.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 63% | — | — | Trade → |
