## Market Snapshot
The market for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026, is currently priced at 16.5% YES, showing a slight increase from 16% 24 hours ago and 10% a week ago. The May 31, 2026, sub-market is priced at 2.9% YES, down from 4% 24 hours ago.
## Key Takeaways
– Trump’s admission appears to increase skepticism about the likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran. – The disclosed arming of Iranian dissidents suggests heightened tensions and reduced chances of successful negotiations. – Market pricing suggests the news is consistent with a decreased probability of a near-term peace settlement.
## Article Body
In a recent statement, President Trump acknowledged that the United States had supplied weapons to groups inside Iran, contributing to riots and unrest. This admission comes amid ongoing tensions and a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran. The ceasefire, announced on April 7, 2026, followed joint US-Israeli airstrikes but remains unstable as recent naval confrontations have occurred. Trump’s comments expose a dual strategy of conventional military engagement and internal destabilization through support for dissidents, complicating diplomatic efforts for a permanent peace deal. The disclosure has come at a time when negotiations for a lasting settlement have stalled, and the possibility of renewed hostilities looms large.
## Market Interpretation
The admission by President Trump is supportive of a NO outcome for the Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market. The impact is considered high, as the revelation undermines trust and reduces the likelihood of successful peace negotiations. The market’s response suggests participants view this development as a significant setback to achieving a stable resolution by the June 30, 2026, deadline.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor further diplomatic statements from key actors such as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei. Any official reactions or changes in military activity, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, could influence market expectations. Additionally, continued US-Iran interactions and any new negotiations or military developments may provide further indications of the ceasefire’s stability and the prospects for a permanent peace deal.
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Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 16.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31, 2026 | 2.9% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 6.5% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31 | 27.5% | — | — | View market → |