Trump admitted that eliminating Iran’s leadership has complicated negotiations. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market is at 16% YES, down from 18% yesterday and 36% a week ago.
The drop extends across multiple timeframes. The April 30 market sits at 16% YES. The May 31 market fell hardest, now at 40% YES, down from 52% just 24 hours ago. The June 30 market is at 64% YES, with a smaller decline.
In the Iranian demands market, Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief in April is priced at 18% YES, down from 26% yesterday. This market trades just $1,814 in daily USDC volume, making it susceptible to volatility from even small orders.
Trump’s admission points to a structural problem: killing Iran’s leadership created a vacuum on the other side of the negotiating table. The April 30 odds reflect deep skepticism about a quick resolution. Buying YES at 16¢ pays $1 if a deal materializes, a 5.25x return that would require a sudden breakthrough.
Watch for statements from US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi. Any shift in rhetoric or announced meetings could move these odds quickly.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
