## Market Snapshot
The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is currently priced at 7.5% YES, down from 8% in the past 24 hours. The market suggests a decreased likelihood of a formal war declaration following recent statements by the Trump administration.
## Key Takeaways
– The Trump administration’s assertion that the US is no longer at war with Iran appears to be consistent with a de-escalation scenario. – Market pricing suggests participants see a reduced probability of a formal US war declaration against Iran by the end of 2026. – The current ceasefire and legal interpretations may indicate a strategy to avoid congressional authorization under the War Powers Resolution.
## Article Body
The Trump administration has announced that it considers the United States no longer at war with Iran under the War Powers Resolution. This announcement comes as the 60-day clock, which began with President Trump’s March notification of conflict, is set to expire. The administration’s stance is reportedly aimed at circumventing the need for congressional authorization by arguing that a ceasefire has effectively ended hostilities. However, critics argue that the War Powers Resolution requires withdrawal absent a congressional approval, and a ceasefire does not legally halt the countdown. The conflict, initiated by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in February, has been in a state of fragile ceasefire since early April.
## Market Interpretation
The market response to the Trump administration’s announcement reflects a high impact on the likelihood of a US declaration of war on Iran. The pricing is supportive of a NO outcome, suggesting that market participants view the administration’s statements as part of a strategy to de-escalate tensions and avoid formal war declarations. This is consistent with previous pricing trends following de-escalation indicators.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor any congressional responses or legal challenges to the administration’s interpretation of the War Powers Resolution. Additionally, developments in US-Iran relations, particularly regarding the ceasefire and any potential negotiations, could further influence market pricing. Attention should also be given to any statements from key political figures, such as President Trump or congressional leaders, regarding the conflict’s status and future US actions.
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Will Reza Pahlavi Enter Iran June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | View market → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
