The Trump administration launched a $166 billion tariff refund portal after the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs unlawful. EU retaliatory tariffs by September 30 now sit at ?.
The refund portal, called CAPE, is run by U.S. Customs and Border Protection and handles refunds for importers affected by the struck-down tariffs. The Supreme Court decision against Trump’s tariffs reduces the probability of EU retaliatory tariffs by removing the underlying trade measures the EU was responding to. Whether the EU still moves forward with retaliation given this de-escalation is the core question for this market.
The September 30 sub-market here is where the action is. The refund system represents a judicial check on executive trade powers and points toward a more conciliatory U.S. posture.
Actual USDC traded on this market was notably low, with little heavy speculative activity. The order book is thin, so a single large order could still move prices significantly. Traders should also watch for legal challenges to CAPE itself or delays tied to a potential appeal deadline in early May.
Watch for statements from the EU Commission or Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro. Any signal of EU retaliatory tariffs or further U.S. trade policy shifts would move this market.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 82.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 89.5% | — | — | Trade → |
