Top Wall Street minds see AI rotation ahead as bitcoin seeks role in new cycle

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and Third Point’s Daniel Loeb see steady economic growth but a tougher market environment.

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What to know:

• Bitcoin this cycle hasn't necessarily worked as a hedge against dollar weakness, but in a maturing, more fragmented market, it may need to prove its value as a simpler, more liquid alternative to complex AI and software-driven bets.
• Some big-name Wall Street investors expect U.S. growth to stay resilient into 2026 even as the easy phase of the AI-driven market rally gives way to a more uneven, stock-picking environment.
• As capital rotates away from crowded mega-cap technology trades toward sectors like industrials, electrification and healthcare, bitcoin may rely less on macro fear and more on its role as a portfolio diversifier and institutional asset.

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, and hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb see a 2026 economy that may keep growing even as the market’s center of gravity shifts.
The broad message from their separate appearances at a conference in Miami last week was not that the AI boom is ending. Instead, they said, the easy phase may be over. As capital spreads beyond a handful of giant U.S. technology stocks, investors may need to think less about riding one theme and more about where growth, pricing power and disruption show up next.

That view could matter for crypto markets, particularly bitcoin BTC$67,743.56. If investors move away from the crowded trades that defined the last few years, some may look harder at assets outside traditional equity sectors. Bitcoin has often traded like a high-beta technology proxy during risk-on periods, but it can also attract demand when investors seek diversification from dollar assets, long-duration growth stocks, or amid policy uncertainty.

In practice, however, bitcoin has not consistently behaved like the main hedge against dollar weakness, especially in recent months, when gold has been the dominant asset when investors move away from the dollar. But as bitcoin matures — many argue it is still a young asset compared to gold — that could change.

Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, said he has been broadening portfolios away from concentrated technology bets. He said he still likes parts of tech, but called the investment landscape different from last year as any he can remember in some time.

His outlook rests in part on the idea that U.S. growth could surprise to the upside even as rates move lower. Rieder said AI-driven productivity could help the economy expand while a still-soft labor market keeps inflation contained. He also argued that tariffs may matter for certain industries but have less impact at the economy-wide level because the U.S. is more dependent on services than on goods.

For bitcoin, that mix cuts both ways. Stronger growth and lower rates would usually support risk assets, including crypto. But if inflation stays contained and real economic activity improves, investors may feel less urgency to seek out alternative stores of value. In that setup, bitcoin’s case may lean less on macro fear and more on portfolio diversification and institutional adoption.

Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer for the Americas and global head of equities, also said the macro backdrop should improve this year, pointing to fiscal stimulus in major economies and more room for U.S. rate cuts. Her bigger point, though, was that the AI trade is changing.

After three years in which markets rewarded companies enabling the AI buildout, she said investors are entering a phase in which winners and losers will separate more sharply. UBS has responded by cutting its overweight rating on technology and communication services and shifting toward industrials, electrification, and healthcare.

That rotation could also affect crypto. If equity investors become more selective on AI and digital business models, tokens tied to broad AI narratives may face more scrutiny. Bitcoin may be better placed than smaller crypto assets in that environment because its investment case is simpler. It does not depend on proving a software revenue model or winning a race for AI market share.

Loeb, founder of hedge fund Third Point, said the market is already rewarding investors who do deeper stock picking and more short selling. He described a shift away from crowded mega-cap trades toward smaller niche companies, including firms in Europe, Japan and South Korea supplying key parts of the AI buildout.

On the economy, Loeb said the U.S. is in a good place for the next six months, though he was less certain about the outlook beyond that. He also said stress in private credit, especially in loans tied to software companies, is likely to produce losses over time but not a systemic shock.

Taken together, the three investors outlined a year in which growth holds up, AI remains the dominant force, and markets become harder to navigate. For bitcoin, that may mean fewer tailwinds from simple momentum trades and a greater need to stand on its own as either a hedge, a diversifier or a liquid alternative in a more fragmented market.

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