Toncoin can revisit $1.50 before TON’s next major rally begins – Here’s why

Toncoin [TON] was in the bears' grip in the short term, but the altcoin has rallied 50% over the past month. This meant that the recent drops were part of a corrective phase in the uptrend. The higher timeframe swing structure had been bearish, but this changed during the recent rally. The $1.95 swing high was comfortably breached on the 6th of May, and the trading volume during the breakout had been sizeable as well. Price structure purists can argue that the 10/10 wick meant that the $2.9 swing high must be breached to flip the trend bullishly. We can overlook that wick since it came due to low liquidity conditions. As things stand, a Toncoin retracement down to $1.50 or even as low as $1.12 is possible. Bitcoin [BTC] was trading above $80k, helping steady the sentiment across the altcoin market. The lower timeframe TON outlook The 4-hour view showed that the local highs from last October and November at $2.36 and $2.16 were both flipped to resistances during TON's retracement. While its higher timeframe swing structure may have shifted bullishly, the H4 internal structure was bearish. The RSI was moving below the neutral 50 level in recent days in agreement with this finding. On the other hand, the OBV has hardly budged from the local highs it set in May. This indicated reduced trading volume during the retracement. In other words, sellers were not fully in control. Once the pullback is done, buyers can look to enter the TON trade once more. Where would the pullback end? It can end at the 50% retracement level at $2.01. Alternatively, market participants might decide to drive prices as low as $1.50 before gaining the confidence to enforce a bullish continuation. Traders can expect a bullish reaction from the $1.5-$1.8 golden pocket. They can also wait for the internal structure on the 4-hour timeframe to shift bullishly, meaning a breach of a recent local high (such as $2.175). Final Summary The Toncoin trend has shifted bullishly but was undergoing a retracement phase. A Bitcoin crash below $75k would massively hurt altcoin sentiment and could take TON below $1.5. Until $1.5 and $1.12 are broken, Toncoin investors can remain hopeful.