Senator Thom Tillis has reversed his opposition and now supports Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair. The May 15 confirmation market has surged to 95% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
Tillis is a key vote on the Senate Banking Committee, and his reversal removes the main obstacle to Warsh’s confirmation. The committee votes Wednesday, which could push Warsh closer to a full Senate floor vote. The May 1 market sits at just 1.3% YES, given the tight timeline. The June 30 market is at 96.9% YES, meaning traders treat confirmation as near-certain over a longer window.
Face value of trades over the past 24 hours was $75,123, but actual USDC traded was $19,708. That gap shows the difference between headline figures and real capital committed. The 20-point spike in the May 15 market to 95% YES indicates traders expect confirmation shortly after the committee vote.
Tillis’s support suggests the DOJ’s investigation into Powell’s tenure is no longer blocking Warsh’s path. With a GOP-majority committee and Tillis on board, the probability of any remaining obstacle is low. A YES share for confirmation by May 15 costs 95¢, offering a 1.05x return if confirmed.
Watch the Senate Banking Committee vote on Wednesday. Any delays or unexpected developments could shift the odds. Also worth tracking: comments from Democratic senators or any change in support from other GOP members on the committee.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 95% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 97% | — | — | Trade → |
