This bitcoin metric has marked every bear market bottom, and it's just flashed again

More than half of the bitcoin in circulation is sitting on unrealized losses as the BTC price tests historically significant bear-market support levels.

What to know:

• The number of bitcoin in circulation priced at a loss has exceeded the supply in profit, with 10.5 million tokens underwater compared with 9.8 million BTC in profit.
• Historically, this crossover has coincided with major bear market bottoms.
• The bitcoin price touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300, a long-term support level that has been reached in every previous bear market.

The amount of bitcoin BTC$63,729.63 supply in loss reached a key bear-market threshold, surpassing 10 million BTC, more than half of the total in circulation.

According to Glassnode data, at a one-hour resolution, the number peaked at about 10.5 million BTC as the price fell to as low as $61,300 on Thursday. Total circulating supply is roughly 20 million BTC, so more than half of all coins are currently held at an unrealized loss.

At the same time, supply in profit has declined to around 9.8 million BTC. This is the first time during the current market cycle that the amount of bitcoin held at a loss has exceeded the amount held in profit.

Historically, this transition has occurred only during deep bear-market conditions, and it has often coincided with major market bottoms.

Previous cycles provide some context.

During the 2015 bear market, supply in loss and supply in profit remained near equilibrium for almost a year before the market recovered. In 2019, the period lasted roughly six months. The Covid-driven capitulation in March 2020 was shorter, lasting around one month, and the 2022 bear market saw this condition persist for about six months.

The takeaway is that while this signal has historically aligned with bear-market lows, the duration of these periods has varied significantly, making it difficult to estimate how long bitcoin could remain at depressed levels.

Adding to the significance of the recent decline, bitcoin touched its 200-week moving average of around $61,300. The measure is a long-term trend indicator that calculates bitcoin's average price over the previous 200 weeks. It has historically acted as a major support level during every bear market cycle.

Should bitcoin drop below the psychologically important $60,000 level, the next major support zone is around $54,000, which corresponds to the realized price. The realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation based on the price at which each coin last moved onchain. Bitcoin has traded below its Realized Price during every major bear market.

More For You

Hoskinson's remarks followed a string of setbacks for the ecosystem, including the cancellation of Cardano's flagship conference and the shutdown of a prominent analytics platform.

What to know:

• Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson said he is “taking a break” after warning of a coming “wave of failures” in the blockchain’s ecosystem.
• The price of ADA fell below $0.20 for the first time in more than five years and is down nearly 70 percent over the past year, with a...

Cardano slumps under 20 cents as Hoskinson says he is 'taking a break' after warning of ecosystem failures

3 hours ago

Goldman Sachs teams with Apex, Archax for tokenized real estate fund

3 hours ago

Polymarket says No for May, Yes for June after Strategy's recent bitcoin sale

3 hours ago

Apyx's STRC collateralized stablecoin suffers a brief depeg. Protocol says its a feature, not bug

4 hours ago

BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP ETFs bleed $4.4 billion over 13 sessions, only HYPE in green

5 hours ago

Bitcoin briefly drops below $62,000 as $1.5 billion in crypto longs get wiped out

8 hours ago

Live markets: Bitcoin selloff stalls as key indicator signals oversold conditions

8 hours ago

Bitcoin tanks below $63,000 for the first time since February as price selloff deepens

9 hours ago

Bitcoin isn't crashing because of Saylor, it's losing the momentum trade

16 hours ago

Bitmine's Ethereum bet nears $9 billion loss as ether falls below $1,800

14 hours ago

New DeFi entrant widens field of crypto political campaign funds as elections loom

16 hours ago

Rare physical bitcoin worth $1.78 million gets cashed in after 12 years

20 hours ago

In this article

BTCBTC$63,729.63◢4.76%