A third AC-130J “Ghost Rider” gunship has arrived in the CENTCOM area. The Polymarket contract for US forces entering Iran by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
The Ghost Rider is built for sustained ground-attack missions, carrying heavy firepower including a 105mm howitzer, a 30mm cannon, and precision munitions. A third airframe in theater increases the capacity for around-the-clock close air support or strike operations. Both the April 30 and December 31 contracts sit at 100% YES, meaning the market sees no distinction between near-term and year-end timelines.
Trading volume is zero. No shares have changed hands around this deployment, which suggests the market already priced in this level of military buildup before the third gunship arrived. Traders may be waiting for harder signals: confirmed troop movements, a formal invasion announcement, or congressional War Powers activity.
At 100¢, a YES share pays $1. There is no speculative upside at this price unless the contract somehow reverses. The third gunship arrival looks more like continuation of an existing posture than a new catalyst. Without recent volume or any price movement, the market is treating this as background noise rather than a trigger.
Watch for CENTCOM directives, Pentagon press briefings, or War Powers discussions in Congress. Any of these could restart active trading on these contracts.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Us Forces Enter Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
