These catalysts could bump bitcoin as Trump hands three-week target to end Iran war

Asian stocks surged 4% and S&P 500 futures jumped after Trump said the conflict could conclude without a deal with Tehran, while Morgan Stanley's newly approved bitcoin ETF at 14 basis points opens a $6.2 trillion advisory channel.

What to know:

• Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures rallied sharply after President Trump said he would give an "important update" on Iran and predicted the war could end within weeks.
• Oil prices rebounded as reports said the United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and allies forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially entering the conflict as a combatant.
• Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rose modestly and remained far less volatile than equities, even as a new low-fee Morgan Stanley bitcoin ETF and hopes for a swift end to the war fueled cautious optimism for a stronger second quarter.

Asian stocks posted their best day in months and S&P 500 futures jumped after the president said he would address the nation Wednesday night with an "important update" on Iran. Oil pared losses as the UAE reportedly prepares to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.

Bitcoin traded at $67,950 on Tuesday, up 0.2% over 24 hours, as a wave of optimism over a potential end to the Iran conflict lifted risk assets across the board. Ether rose 1.6% to $2,100, its strongest daily move in weeks.

XRP gained 0.5% to $1.34, dogecoin added 0.5% to $0.09, and BNB edged up 0.4% to $616. Solana's SOL was the notable laggard, dropping 0.7% to $83.14 and extending weekly losses to 8.7%.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 4%, its best session since the war began, with nearly 10 stocks rising for every one that fell. Asian tech jumped 6.5%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix surging more than 9% each. S&P 500 futures climbed, and the index notched its biggest single-day gain since May.

The catalyst was Trump telling reporters he expected the war to end within two to three weeks and that a deal with Iran was not a prerequisite for concluding the conflict. He announced a national address Wednesday at 9 p.m.

Eastern to provide what he called an "important update." Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian told the EU Council president that Tehran has "the necessary will to end this war" but expects guarantees against future aggression.

Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE is preparing to help the U.S. and allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, which would make it the first Gulf state to enter the conflict as a combatant. Brent crude edged back above $105 after Tuesday's decline.

The crypto market's reaction was muted relative to equities, a pattern that has held for weeks. Bitcoin has spent the entire war grinding between $65,000 and $73,000 while equities swing violently on each headline. The gap between crypto's sideways range and the stock market's correction-level drawdown remains the most notable divergence in the cross-asset picture.

There were reasons for cautious optimism beyond geopolitics. Morgan Stanley received approval for a bitcoin ETF charging just 14 basis points, 11 below the category average. The product opens access to Morgan Stanley's 16,000 financial advisors managing $6.2 trillion, a channel that has not previously had direct bitcoin ETF exposure.

Alex Blume, CEO of Two Prime, pointed to three catalysts that could drive bitcoin higher in Q2 — the Morgan Stanley ETF, continued success of Strategy's STRC preferred equity product in funding bitcoin purchases, and a swift resolution to the Iran war.

"A lot of market uncertainty could be resolved soon," Blume said in an email to CoinDesk. "Coupled with new buying power, a strong Q2 may be ahead."

Gold advanced for a fourth straight day to near $4,700, though its nearly 12% decline in March was its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The precious metal's ongoing weakness during an active war continues to break historical precedent.

Whether Trump's Wednesday address produces an actual off-ramp or just another headline in a month that's been full of them will determine if this rally holds. As one analyst put it, "I'm not convinced over the longer term. Investors will soon want concrete evidence that the end of the war is in sight."

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