The Protocol: Quantum computing could break Bitcoin sooner, says Google

Also: OpenAI raises $122 billion, crypto ecosystems diverging post-quantum strategies, and Base’s 2026 roadmap.

What to know:

Welcome to The Protocol, CoinDesk's weekly wrap of the most important stories in cryptocurrency tech development. I’m Margaux Nijkerk, a reporter at CoinDesk.

In this issue:

• Breaking Bitcoin with quantum may be easier than thought, with Taproot partly to blame, Google says
• OpenAI raises a record $122 billion as revenue crosses $2 billion per month
• Here's how Bitcoin, Ethereum and other networks are preparing for the looming quantum threat
• Coinbase’s Base to focus on tokenized markets, stablecoins, developers this year

Network News

GOOGLE SAYS BREAKING BITCOIN IS EASIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT: Breaking the Bitcoin blockchain with quantum computers may not be as difficult as once thought, and Bitcoin’s Taproot technology, which enables more efficient, private transactions, may be partly to blame, Google's Quantum AI team said in a blog post and newly published whitepaper. The team said the computing power required to break Bitcoin’s security may be far lower than previously assumed, raising fresh questions about how soon quantum threats could become a reality.In a new whitepaper, researchers found that cracking the cryptography used by Bitcoin and Ethereum could require fewer than 500,000 physical quantum bits, or qubits, well below the “millions” often cited in recent years. Google has previously pointed to 2029 as a potential milestone for useful quantum systems, saying migration needs to come before that, making the paper’s finding that attacks may require less computing power more significant. Quantum computers use qubits instead of traditional bits and can solve certain problems much faster than today’s machines. One of those problems is breaking the type of encryption that protects crypto wallets.Google said it designed two potential attack methods, each requiring roughly 1,200 to 1,450 high-quality qubits. That is a fraction of earlier estimates and suggests the gap between current technology and a viable attack may be smaller than investors think. The research also outlines how such an attack could work in practice. Rather than targeting old wallets, a quantum attacker could go after transactions in real time. When someone sends bitcoin, a piece of data called a public key is briefly revealed. A fast enough quantum computer could use that information to calculate the private key and redirect the funds. — Sam Reynolds Read more.

OPENAI RAISES RECORD $122 BILLION: Artificial intelligence giant OpenAI has closed $122 billion in committed capital at an $852 billion post-money valuation, a round that dwarfs anything raised in private markets and cements the company as the most valuable startup in history by a wide margin. The funding was anchored by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, with continued participation from Microsoft. SoftBank co-led alongside a16z, D.E. Shaw Ventures, MGX, TPG, and accounts advised by T. Rowe Price. The investor list reads like a who's who of global capital — BlackRock, Blackstone, Fidelity, Sequoia, Temasek, Coatue, and ARK Invest all participated. For the first time, OpenAI opened participation to individual investors through bank channels, raising over $3 billion from that tranche alone. OpenAI said it is generating $2 billion in revenue per month, up from $1 billion per quarter at the end of 2024. ChatGPT has more than 900 million weekly active users and over 50 million subscribers. The company claims 6x the monthly web visits and mobile sessions of the next largest AI app, and 4x the total time spent of all other AI apps combined. — Shaurya Malwa Read more.

HOW BITCOIN, ETHEREUM, AND SOLANA ARE PREPARING FOR Q-DAY: As quantum computing edges closer to practical reality, the crypto industry is beginning to confront a question it has long deferred: what happens if the cryptography underpinning trillions of dollars in digital assets no longer holds? The answers, so far, are anything but uniform. Across many of the most well-known ecosystems like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, responses are diverging along familiar lines: what to do on social consensus and technical iteration, and community members are split between caution and acceleration. Quantum computing is a fundamentally different approach to computation that uses the principles of quantum mechanics rather than classical physics. Instead of traditional bits that are either 0 or 1, quantum computers use “qubits,” which can exist in multiple states at once, a property known as superposition, allowing them to process many possibilities simultaneously. Combined with another feature called entanglement, this enables quantum machines to solve certain complex problems far more efficiently than classical computers, particularly tasks like factoring large numbers that underpin modern encryption. How threatening is quantum computing? Consider this: Quantum computers can solve extremely complex problems within seconds, whereas 'Supercomputers,' the most powerful computing machines available today, would take thousands of years for the same problems, according to IBM. And that's why the threats to cryptographic networks stemming from quantum computing are concerning. And even Google, developer of Willow, a quantum supercomputer, is setting a 2029 deadline to migrate its authentication services to post-quantum cryptography, citing progress in the technology. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

BASE TEAM RELEASES 2026 ROADMAP: Base, the layer-2 network from Coinbase (COIN), is doubling down on its push to build what it calls a “global onchain economy,” outlining a 2026 strategy centered on markets, payments and developers. Base is one of the most widely used layer-2 networks in the Ethereum ecosystem, having opened to public use in August 2023. It was initially built using Optimism’s OP Stack as part of the broader “Superchain” ecosystem, though the project has since signaled plans to differentiate its infrastructure as it scales. In February, the Coinbase team said the chain will increasingly rely on its own, in-house code. Layer-2 blockchains are built on top of Ethereum and aim to increase speed and lower costs by processing transactions themselves, while still relying on Ethereum for security. The model has become a key part of Ethereum’s scaling strategy, enabling cheaper and faster transactions without moving activity entirely off the network. More recently, however, some Ethereum leaders, including co-founder Vitalik Buterin, have signaled a shift in focus toward scaling the base layer itself, leaving open questions about how layer-2 networks will fit into Ethereum’s evolving roadmap. For 2026, Base said it will focus on three areas: expanding onchain markets, scaling stablecoin-based payments and growing its developer ecosystem — a push that comes as onchain trading venues and stablecoins see rising adoption among institutional players. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

In Other News

• Bitcoin’s reputation has historically been built on extreme boom-and-bust cycles, with steep drawdowns of up to 90% following all-time highs. This cycle, however, the decline has been closer to 50%, a shift that analysts said reflects the maturation of BTC as an asset class. “Bitcoin’s drawdowns compressing to about 50% is a sign of a maturing market structure,” AdLunam co-founder and market analyst Jason Fernandes told CoinDesk. “As liquidity deepens and institutional participation increases, volatility naturally compresses on both the upside and the downside,” he added, saying that “at that point, the narrative shifts from questioning its legitimacy to optimizing allocation.” Fernandes' comments are in response to Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Zack Wainwright’s X post Tuesday, in which he noted growth is becoming “less impulsive,” with a reduced probability of extreme downside events as bitcoin matures. — Olivier Acuna Read more.
• In Jack Dorsey's view of the world, the job most at risk from the AI revolution is the middle manager. Dorsey argues in a new essay, "From Hierarchy to Intelligence," published with Roelof Botha, Sequoia Capital's managing partner, an investor in Block, that his company's decision to cut approximately 4,000 of its more than 10,000 employees was not a cost reduction but a permanent restructuring to replace middle managers with AI. Corporate hierarchy, the essay argues, has always existed to solve one problem: routing information through organizations too large for any single person to oversee. Managers aggregate context from below, act as messengers from above, and maintain alignment across teams. AI can now perform those functions continuously and at scale, the authors argue, making the messenger redundant. In place of management layers, Dorsey and Botha proposes two AI-driven "world models." One aggregates internal data from code, decisions, workflows, and performance metrics to create a continuously updated picture of company operations, replacing the context that managers traditionally carried. The other maps customer and merchant behavior using transaction data from Cash App and Square. — Sam Reynolds Read more.

Regulatory and Policy

• Australia passed legislation creating its first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets that requires crypto exchanges and custody providers to obtain financial services licenses. The Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025 cleared both houses on April 1, bringing firms that hold digital assets on behalf of customers into the existing Australian Financial Services Licence regime. Australia's bill creates two new regulated categories under the Corporations Act: digital asset platforms, which hold crypto on behalf of users, and tokenized custody platforms, which hold real-world assets and issue a corresponding digital tokens. Operators of both must obtain an Australian Financial Services License from ASIC, bringing them under the same core rules as brokers or fund managers, including requirements to safeguard client assets, provide standardized disclosures, avoid misleading conduct, and maintain dispute resolution and compensation systems. Instead of regulating crypto itself, the law targets the companies in the middle that control customer funds, aiming to reduce risks like commingling, insolvency, and misuse of assets that have caused losses in past crypto failures. — Sam Reynolds Read more.
• Hong Kong has missed its own March timeline for HKD stablecoin licensing, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) yet to approve any issuers despite public signals that the rollout would begin last month. At Consensus Hong Kong in February, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said licenses would begin to be issued in March as part of the city’s push to position itself as a regulated hub for stablecoins and tokenized finance. The lack of approvals so far pushes that timeline into April and raises questions about how quickly the framework will move from policy to implementation. "In giving our licenses, we ensure that licensees have novel use cases, a credible and sustainable business model and strong regulatory compliance capabilities," he said at CoinDesk's Hong Kong conference.— Sam Reynolds Read more.

Calendar

• Mar. 30-Apr. 2, 2026: EthCC, Cannes
• Apr.15-16, 2026: Paris Blockchain Week, Paris
• May 5-7, 2026: Consensus, Miami
• Sept. 29-Oct.1, 2026: Korea Blockchain Week, Seoul
• Oct. 7-8, 2026: Token2049, Singapore
• Nov. 3-6, 2026: Devcon, Mumbai
• Nov. 15-17, 2026: Solana Breakpoint, London

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The funding round, anchored by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, is the largest private funding in history.

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