The AI-crypto disconnect: Why Pantera’s CEO thinks institutions are missing the boat on bitcoin

Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead says the "biggest divergence in history" has left AI stocks fully priced while bitcoin remains massively undervalued at 43% below its historical trend.

What to know:

• Dan Morehead, founder and CEO of Pantera Capital, said cryptocurrency markets are “incredibly cheap” compared with what he views as overheated artificial intelligence stocks.
• Citing Pantera’s internal data, he said leading AI companies trade about 33 percent above their four-year log trend, while bitcoin is roughly 43 percent below its historical trajectory, creating what he called the biggest divergence on record.
• Morehead argued that limited institutional exposure, crypto’s four-year market cycle and its role as a hedge against currency debasement support a long-term bullish case, even as capital continues to favor AI in the near term.

Pantera Capital founder and CEO Dan Morehead said cryptocurrency markets may be undervalued compared with artificial intelligence stocks, which he described as overheated after a strong run.

Morehead framed the divergence as one of the largest he has seen between the two sectors, speaking at an event in New York on Tuesday.

“It’s just my intuition that although AI is very important, it’s going to go up big time over the long haul, seems to be pretty fully priced right now,” he said.

By contrast, “crypto...is incredibly cheap," according to Morehead.

Pantera’s internal data backs that view. Morehead said an index of leading AI companies is “trading at 33% over its log trend of the last four years,” while bitcoin BTC$75,768.68 has fallen well below its own historical trajectory. “It’s 43% cheap to its trend,” he said, calling it “the biggest divergence we’ve seen in history.”

The gap comes as investor enthusiasm has tilted heavily toward AI, with large funding rounds and rising public market valuations. Crypto, meanwhile, has struggled to regain momentum despite broader adoption and regulatory progress in the U.S.

“The majority of institutions still don’t get it. They still don’t have any exposure,” Morehead said, adding that limited participation leaves room for future demand. Only a minority of large investors currently hold digital assets, he noted, even as the asset class matures.

That dynamic contrasts with AI, where investors have moved quickly to price in expected growth. For Morehead, the imbalance creates an opportunity for those willing to take a longer view.

He also pointed to structural cycles in crypto markets. “The four-year cycle is real,” he said, referring to bitcoin’s supply schedule. If past patterns hold, he suggested the market could remain in a weaker phase in the near term, even as the long-term outlook stays positive.

Beyond relative valuations, Morehead tied crypto’s appeal to broader macro trends. He described digital assets as a hedge against currency debasement, noting that inflation and monetary expansion have pushed investors toward scarce assets. “It’s actually all those things aren’t moving. It’s a massive devaluation of paper money,” he said.

Morehead sees convergence between AI and blockchain technologies. Pantera has invested in several projects at that intersection, and Morehead argued the two sectors are linked. “There’s really no world in which AI is important that crypto isn’t part of it,” he said.

Pantera views crypto as a relative value trade for now As capital continues to flow into AI, Morehead’s thesis rests on the idea that markets will eventually rebalance, drawing attention back to digital assets that remain, in his view, underpriced.

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