Thailand’s foreign minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow criticized the U.S. for not assisting with the Iran conflict’s fallout. The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 is at 2.1% YES, down from 68% a week ago.
Phuangketkeow’s statement points to broader U.S. disengagement, which is showing up across related markets. The contract for no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 sits at 17.1% YES. The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market is at 1.1% YES.
The nuclear deal market is thin. Volume over 24 hours was $7,699 USDC, but only $1,550 could move the odds by five points. The largest move was a 4-point spike yesterday afternoon. Even modest trades can swing prices significantly in a book this shallow.
The collapse in U.S. engagement has dragged confidence across all these contracts. A YES share in the nuclear deal market costs 2¢, paying $1 if it resolves YES, a 50x return. But with the April 30 deadline approaching and no diplomatic momentum, traders are pricing this as a near-impossibility.
Watch for any shift in U.S. diplomatic posture or statements from Trump or Khamenei. Given the thin liquidity, even a single headline could move these contracts sharply.
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Us Iran Nuclear Deal April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 17.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
