Tel Aviv saw fresh protests demanding Netanyahu’s resignation. The “Netanyahu out by June 30” market sits at 6% YES, while the April 30 contract is at 0%.
Market reaction
The protests continue a series of demonstrations over security failures during the October 7 Hamas attacks. June 30 odds are unchanged from 24 hours ago, meaning traders price minimal short-term risk to Netanyahu’s hold on power. The 5-point spread between April 30 and June 30 does suggest some traders expect conditions to shift as summer approaches.
Why it matters
Both sub-markets are thin. Total USDC traded is $1,762 across the two contracts. It takes $9,495 to move the June 30 market by 5 points, which means any quick swing requires serious capital. The largest move was a 1-point drop at midnight.
What to watch
These protests reflect growing domestic anger, but without a coalition collapse or Supreme Court action, the odds stay flat. Buying YES at 6¢ offers a potential 16.67x return, though that requires a major political shift within 67 days. The specific triggers to track: Knesset votes, coalition partner statements, and any high-profile resignations from Netanyahu’s government.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
