Tehran has lodged a protest with the UN over the US using Arab states’ territory for strikes against Iran. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by April 30 are at 0.5% YES.
The April 30 regime fall market is nearly flatlined. The May 31 market sits at 3.0% YES, a modest bump that tracks with the conflict dragging on. The low odds reflect market consensus that neither the UN protest nor recent strikes will topple the regime on their own, though continued international isolation could change the calculus.
The protest doesn’t fundamentally change the regime’s stability. The April 30 market has a face value of $1.35M but only $9,300 in actual USDC traded, meaning liquidity is too thin for a major swing. The May 31 market is more active, with $27,933 traded daily.
The UN protest matters as a diplomatic signal but not as a regime-ending event. For traders betting on regime instability, a YES share for the regime to fall by May 31 trades at 3¢, offering a potential 33x payout. That bet requires significant escalation (mass protests, major defections) within 38 days.
Watch the Assembly of Experts and any signs of IRGC fractures. Those would be the strongest signals of real instability.
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Will Reza Pahlavi Enter Iran June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3% | — | — | Trade → |
