Flights between Tehran and Moscow resumed after a two-month suspension caused by US-Israeli military strikes. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market sits at 7.5% YES.
Market reaction
The Iranian regime fall market dropped from 8% to 7.5% YES, with traders pricing in reduced instability following the flight resumption. The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 market also moved to 6.5% YES, down from 6% in the past 24 hours.
Why it matters
Putin met with Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi alongside the flight resumption, reinforcing Russia-Iran ties at a moment when both markets are pricing in regime stability. The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran market is thinly traded at $736/day. With $7,632 needed to move the odds 5 points, it’s vulnerable to swings on low volume.
What to watch
At 7.5% YES, betting on regime fall would require credible signs of internal fracture or a major external threat. A YES share at 7.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 13.3x return if you expect a sudden collapse. Watch for Russian-Iranian diplomatic shifts and any moves from the IRGC or Assembly of Experts as indicators of potential volatility.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
