Michael Saylor’s Strategy now holds 815,061 BTC, surpassing BlackRock’s 802,824 BTC. On Polymarket, odds for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by month-end jumped to 50.5% YES, up from 30% just yesterday.
Market reaction
The Bitcoin $80,000 market moved sharply after news of Strategy’s latest purchase: 34,164 BTC at an average price of $74,395 per coin. The Bitcoin $66,000 April 21 market sits at 99.9% YES, pricing in near-certainty that Bitcoin stays above that level in the short term.
Why it matters
Daily USDC volume in the $80,000 target market is $69,222, and it takes only $53,608 in depth to move the price 5 points. That’s enough liquidity to show real interest, but thin enough that a single large order could cause sharp swings. Strategy’s accumulation, now exceeding the largest asset manager’s Bitcoin ETF holdings, is the kind of concrete buying pressure that moves spot markets and prediction markets alike.
What to watch
At 42¢, a YES share in the $80,000 market pays $1 if it resolves, a 2.38x return. The bet depends on whether institutional buying continues at this pace and whether macro conditions cooperate. Federal Reserve decisions and Bitcoin ETF inflow data are the most likely catalysts in either direction.
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Bitcoin Above On April 21| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | 50.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| $150,000 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One day after launch | 95.8% | — | — | Trade → |
