Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy, announced the acquisition of 34,164 Bitcoin for $2.54 billion between April 13-19. The market for Bitcoin reaching an all-time high by June 30, 2026, sits at 3.1% YES.
Market reaction
The June 30 market at 3.1% YES is up modestly from a week ago. The September 30 market has declined to 9.5% YES from 12% a week ago, suggesting traders are cautious about near-term highs but more willing to bet on later in the year. Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is $917 in USDC. Order book depth shows it would take $959 to move the June 30 market by 5 percentage points, meaning a single large trade could shift odds significantly.
Why it matters
This is Strategy’s third-largest single Bitcoin purchase. Saylor has been accumulating Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset since 2020, and a $2.54 billion buy in one week reinforces that pattern. The purchase could reduce expectations of a Bitcoin drop to $60,000 in April, since a buyer of this size is unlikely to sit idle during a steep decline.
What to watch
Further accumulation announcements from institutional holders like BlackRock or Grayscale would compound the signal. Regulatory developments affecting Bitcoin adoption and Federal Reserve communications on rate cuts could also move these markets. At current levels, buying YES for an all-time high by June 30 at 3¢ would yield a 32.3x return if Bitcoin reaches a new peak by then.
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Bitcoin All Time High| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
