Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is stalled after a brief reopening, with the market for fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13-19 at 0.4% YES.
Market reaction
The odds for fewer than 10 ships transiting from April 13-19 are likely to rise with the strait effectively closed again. The market trades with minimal actual USDC, indicating low confidence but potential for a quick shift. Given the ongoing blockade and Iran’s refusal to allow selective transit, the chances of fewer ships passing through are strong.
The odds for 80 ships transiting on any day by April 30 have dropped to 26.5% YES, down from 51% yesterday. Traders are pricing in continued disruption and a low likelihood of near-term resolution. With 12 days left until the market closes, the spread reflects skepticism about a quick reopening.
Why it matters
Volume on the April 19 sub-market is just $14 in actual USDC, meaning small orders can move the price significantly. The broader April 30 market has $16,360 in actual USDC, making it somewhat more stable but still susceptible to larger orders.
What to watch
If Iran remains defiant against UNSC demands and the US naval blockade persists, the probability of increased ship traffic stays low. Buying YES at 26.5¢ offers a potential 4.44x return, but that would require a dramatic diplomatic shift or military resolution. Key triggers include any statements from Admiral Cooper or a surprise diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and the US.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 26.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |