Former Israeli military spokesperson Jonathan Conricus stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to a lack of orders from President Trump. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 17.5% YES, down from 20% a day ago.
Conricus’s comments point to ongoing closure and are consistent with the bearish direction of the May 15 market. The market reflects skepticism that Trump will give the necessary orders promptly. Current odds indicate traders see little chance of normal traffic resuming in the next 21 days. A YES share at 17.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, implying a potential 5.7x return, but the required conditions seem distant.
The Strait of Hormuz market moves $36,459 in actual USDC daily, with $4,658 needed to shift odds by 5 percentage points. The largest recent movement was a 2-point spike when odds briefly increased from 16% to 18%, showing the market’s sensitivity to even minor developments or rumors.
Conricus’s statement reinforces expectations of a prolonged closure with no immediate resolution. For the market to shift significantly toward YES, traders would need clear signals from the White House or CENTCOM that measures to reopen the strait are underway. Until then, traders are betting on continued blockage and military tension.
Watch for updates from CENTCOM or direct orders from President Trump, as these would be the primary catalysts for a market shift. Statements from General Michael Kurilla or a sudden change in diplomatic talks could also move the odds.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.7% | — | — | Trade → |
