## Market Snapshot Strait of Hormuz traffic by May 15 is priced at 1.8% YES, down from 4% 24 hours ago. Market odds for Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement by May 31 are at 40.5% YES, a slight decrease from 42% yesterday. The probability of 20 ships transiting the Strait by May 31 is 65.5% YES, down from 69% in the last day.
## Key Takeaways – Pricing suggests traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to normalize by mid-May, consistent with continued naval blockades. – Market activity indicates a lower likelihood of Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by the end of May. – The chances of 20 or more ships transiting the Strait by the end of May have decreased, reflecting ongoing disruptions.
## Article Body The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz persists following recent skirmishes between U.S. and Iranian naval forces, according to a report by the New York Times. The strategic waterway has been a flashpoint in the ongoing conflict, with the U.S. enforcing a blockade under Project Freedom and Iran deploying unmanned vessels and drones to disrupt shipping. Recent engagements have included the U.S. Navy’s interception of Iranian boats, indicating sustained tensions. This situation follows the collapse of ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan and marks the continuation of a conflict initiated in February 2026 by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
## Market Interpretation The latest developments are supportive of NO outcomes across multiple markets. The impact is categorized as high, as the ongoing skirmishes and effective blockade are consistent with scenarios where normal traffic does not resume swiftly. Markets appear to interpret these events as decreasing the likelihood of significant changes in the current naval blockade or shipping conditions in the near term.
## What to Watch Key developments to monitor include potential diplomatic engagements that could alter the current blockade status, such as renewed talks mediated by third parties like Pakistan. Additionally, any official announcements from U.S. or Iranian leadership regarding changes in naval strategy could significantly influence market perceptions. Observers should also keep an eye on ship transit reports from sources like IMF Portwatch, which could shift expectations around the likelihood of increased shipping activity.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 1.8% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 24% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 40.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 65% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 28.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 36% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 24.5% | — | — | View market → |
