Keir Starmer visited Scotland without meeting Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, exposing internal party tensions. The market for Starmer resigning by June 30, 2026, is at 36.5% YES, down from 42% yesterday.
Market reaction
The June 30, 2026 market dropped after Starmer snubbed Sarwar, who had previously called for his resignation. The December 31, 2026 market sits at 59.5% YES, suggesting traders price a longer-term threat to his leadership but not an imminent one.
Why it matters
The term structure shows a 26-point spread between the June 30 and December 31, 2026 contracts over just 184 days. Traders appear to expect a catalyst in the second half of 2026 rather than the first.
Combined daily face value across these contracts is $35,517, but actual USDC trades are just $16,715. The order book is thin: $3,486 can swing the June market by 5 points. A notable 2-point drop at 5:16 PM showed how quickly prices move on fresh news in this market.
What to watch
Starmer’s refusal to engage with Sarwar points to a widening rift. A YES share at 36¢ pays $1 if Starmer steps down by June 30, a 2.78x return. That bet requires believing a leadership contest materializes within months, not just that one eventually happens.
Watch Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting. If either launches a leadership bid, these markets will reprice fast. Starmer’s next Commons session could also signal whether backbench support is eroding.
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