Keir Starmer faces the UK parliament on April 20 as calls grow for his resignation over appointing Peter Mandelson as US ambassador despite a failed vetting process. The odds of Starmer resigning by December 31, 2026, sit at 65.5% YES, down from 66% a day ago.
Market reaction
The June 30, 2026 market shows 36.5% YES, down from 42% yesterday, suggesting traders are pricing in a delay in any potential resignation. The December 31, 2026 market carries a 26-point spread over the June date, pointing to a belief that any departure would come later in the year.
The June 30 market has $8,374 in daily USDC volume, with $3,486 needed to move the price five points, a sign of relatively concentrated trading. The December market is thicker at $8,341 daily USDC, requiring $4,578 to shift five points. The largest recent price move was a 1-point spike in the December market.
Why it matters
Both markets have dropped several points in the last 24 hours even as political pressure on Starmer has increased. The gap between the two contracts suggests traders expect Starmer to survive the immediate fallout but face growing risk through the rest of 2026. At 37¢, a YES share for June 30 pays $1 if Starmer steps down, a 2.7x return. That bet requires confidence in a swift leadership challenge.
What to watch
Starmer’s parliamentary address and any direct fallout from it. Moves by Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting could shift odds quickly, as could any Labour NEC actions or polling drops.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
