Keir Starmer claims most Labour MPs support him, but internal speculation is mounting. Odds of Starmer leaving by December 31, 2026, are at 71% YES, up from 66% yesterday.
The June 30, 2026 market is at 46.5% YES, a 5-point increase in the past 24 hours. The term structure shows a 24-point gap between the June and December 2026 contracts, meaning traders expect a catalyst sometime in that window.
Combined daily trading volume is at $29,563 in USDC. The June 30, 2026 market requires only $906 to move 5 points. The largest recent move was a 3-point spike at 4:07 PM.
Starmer is under pressure from both within Labour and outside the party, with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch calling for a no-confidence vote. At 29¢, a YES share for June 2026 offers a 3.45x return if Starmer is ousted, pricing in real risk to his leadership.
Watch for developments in Labour’s internal politics, especially potential moves by Deputy Leader Lucy Powell. The May 7 local elections are the nearest trigger: significant electoral losses or public dissent from senior Labour figures could push these contracts higher.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 46.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 71% | — | — | Trade → |
