Ethereum could outpace Bitcoin by a wide margin over the next four years — at least according to one of the most bullish forecasts to come out of traditional banking. That is the view from Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, who laid out the projection in a recent podcast appearance.
Ethereum’s Potential Gain Towers Over Bitcoin’s
While Bitcoin grabs the bigger headline number, the math actually favors Ethereum. Kendrick’s base case puts Bitcoin at $500,000 by 2030 — roughly 7.5 times its current price of $66,400.
Ethereum, sitting at $2,034, would need to hit $40,000 to meet his target. That works out to about 20 times its current value. In other words, Ethereum holders would see nearly three times the relative return compared to Bitcoin investors, if the forecast holds.
Kendrick flagged the ETH/BTC ratio as one indicator to watch. That ratio currently sits at around 0.03. His outlook has it climbing to 0.04 in the near term, a signal that Ethereum would be gaining ground on Bitcoin in relative terms.
He also offered a more immediate checkpoint: if Bitcoin gets back to $100,000 by the end of 2026, Ethereum should be trading near $4,000. That would represent gains of roughly 50% for Bitcoin and 95% for Ethereum from where both assets currently stand.
Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered:
“I’ve got $500K Bitcoin by 2030 and $40K Ethereum by 2030 – a massive outperformance.”
That’s ~20x on $ETH from here. pic.twitter.com/p7dFwPrTzG
— Milk Road (@MilkRoad) April 1, 2026
Banks Are Choosing Ethereum First
One reason why Kendrick believes in the bullishness of Ethereum is that the financial sector has been joining the blockchain revolution.
From Kendrick’s point of view, large asset management firms and banks usually begin their blockchain ventures by developing products based on Ethereum since it has a reputation for safety and reliability.
For instance, BlackRock started creating blockchain products using Ethereum first before venturing into other blockchain networks.
This pattern, Kendrick argues, gives Ethereum a durable edge. As more institutions follow the same playbook, demand for the network could build steadily through the end of the decade.
He described this as the “first phase” of real-world adoption playing out primarily on Ethereum, even if activity eventually spreads to competing blockchains.
Network Usage Seen As A Price DriverBeyond institutional adoption, Kendrick pointed to raw network activity as a key factor in his price outlook. Rising transaction fees on Ethereum-based applications are seen as a gauge of demand.
As stablecoins, decentralized finance, and tokenized real-world assets continue to grow on the network, that increased usage could push the token’s value higher.
The forecast was shared during an interview on the Milk Road podcast with host John Gillen.
Standard Chartered has not publicly released a formal research note tied to these specific figures, but Kendrick’s comments drew wide attention across the crypto community following the appearance.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
