Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2 billion in net inflows over the past eight days. The odds for Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by June 30 sit at 3% YES.
BlackRock’s IBIT led the influx with over $900 million. The June 30 all-time high contract holds at 3%, while the September 30 and December 31 contracts trade at 11% and 18%, respectively. The 8-point jump between September and December suggests traders expect a catalyst in that window.
Daily actual USDC volume on the June 30 market is $469, making it thin and easy to move. The depth required to shift odds 5 points is just $1,592. December 31’s market is thicker, requiring $880 to move 5 points, which points to stronger conviction among traders there.
The $2 billion in ETF inflows during US-Iran tensions fits Bitcoin’s narrative as a geopolitical hedge. At 3¢, a YES share for June 30 pays $1 if Bitcoin hits an all-time high by then, a potential 33x return. Justifying that bet would require expecting sustained ETF inflows and possible macroeconomic shifts like rate cuts.
Watch geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve communications. Changes in either could move Bitcoin’s price and these contracts with it.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
