SpaceX’s confidential SEC filing for an IPO has pushed the June 30, 2026 market to 70.5% YES, up from 68% a week ago.
Market reaction
The June 30 market moved up on news of SpaceX’s potential $1.75-2 trillion valuation. The September 30 IPO market sits at 91.5%, and the December 31 market is at 92.5%. The spread between the April 30 and June 30 markets, a 70-point leap, suggests traders expect a catalyst within the next two months.
Why it matters
SpaceX is filing alongside other large private companies like OpenAI and Anthropic that are also moving toward public listings. SpaceX’s filing during the Iranian conflict doesn’t suggest an escalation, pointing instead to a focus on macroeconomic stability. The size of SpaceX’s expected valuation makes this one of the largest IPO candidates in history.
What to watch
Daily volume on the June 30 market is $1,155 in USDC, with $4,330 needed to shift the price by 5 percentage points. This is a moderately liquid market where a single large trade can move the price. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike at 1:50 PM after the filing news.
Buying YES at 70¢ pays 1.42x if SpaceX goes public by June 30. That bet requires believing the IPO process accelerates in the coming weeks. Key signals: completion of the confidential filing process, a public S-1 filing, or IPO pricing announcements. Any of these would likely drive sharp movement in the market.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 71.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 91.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.3% | — | — | Trade → |
