Reuters reports that SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion valuation relies on unproven technology, raising doubts about IPO timing. The SpaceX IPO by June 30 market sits at 69% YES, down from 70% yesterday.
The June 30 contract dipped slightly as traders priced in potential regulatory and investor hesitance. The September 30 and December 31 contracts haven’t moved, holding at 92% and 93.5% YES. The April 30 market is at 0.1% YES with only 6 days left.
These prices reflect $6,884 in USDC traded in the past 24 hours. The June 30 market is the most active, with $5,405 in daily USDC volume. It costs $4,547 to move the price 5 points, which means the book is relatively stable but still reactive to news. A 2-point dip in the early hours suggests some traders are positioning for further scrutiny or delays.
The valuation question matters because SpaceX’s dependence on unproven technology could draw SEC scrutiny and push back the IPO timeline. At 31¢, buying NO on the June 30 contract pays $1 if the IPO doesn’t happen by then, a 3.23x return. That bet requires believing these technical and regulatory hurdles can’t be cleared within 67 days.
Watch for SEC announcements or SpaceX updates from Musk. A formal statement on IPO adjustments would likely move these contracts sharply.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 69% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 92% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 93.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
