At least seven ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, continuing the low activity seen in recent days. The odds for 80 ships transiting in a single day by April 30 are at 1% YES, down from 4% yesterday.
Sparse traffic through the strait has kept markets skeptical about a rebound in ship transits. The odds for April 30 sit at 0.7% YES, near-zero confidence in meeting the market condition. With only six days left, a sudden surge in traffic is unlikely.
Volume on this market is thin, with $449 in USDC traded daily. The order book is fragile: it takes just $542 to move the price 5 percentage points. A single trader with a modest budget can significantly swing the odds, which may explain the rapid decline from 51% a week ago.
For traders, the 16% YES odds for traffic returning to normal by May 15 are more interesting. At 16¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, a potential 6.25x return. But for that bet to pay off, you’d need significant geopolitical shifts or operational changes in the strait.
Watch for announcements from U.S. Central Command or updates from maritime intelligence firms like Windward. Any signs of Iran easing restrictions or U.S. naval maneuvers could shift traffic patterns and market pricing.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | +0.1¢ | $3K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.1% | +0.1¢ | $6K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 15.5% | 0.0¢ | $242K | Trade → |
