The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed Chair before the congressional recess. The odds of Warsh being confirmed by May 1 sit at 1.9% YES, despite recent procedural progress.
The biggest movement is in the May 15 sub-market, now at 82% YES, up from 29% just yesterday. Traders read the committee vote as the main remaining obstacle, which explains the 20-point spike. The June 30 contract holds at 96.2% YES, meaning the market is near-certain Warsh gets confirmed eventually, even if not immediately.
Volume over the last 24 hours is at $19,708 in USDC. The May 15 contract’s order book is thick, requiring $1,590 to move the price 5 points, which points to larger players participating. The May 1 contract is thin by comparison: just $121 moves it the same amount, making it easy for small traders to push around.
The committee vote is a necessary step toward confirmation, but internal Republican friction complicates the timeline. Senator Thom Tillis opposes the nomination because of an ongoing DOJ investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. At 2¢, a YES share pays 50x if Warsh is confirmed by May 1. That bet requires believing Tillis’s block gets lifted in the next few days, which is a long shot given the political situation.
Watch for signals from Senator Tillis and any DOJ statements resolving the Powell investigation. Either could move the odds sharply before Wednesday’s vote.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 82% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
