Sen. Warren questioned Kevin Warsh on undisclosed assets during his Fed Chair confirmation hearing, and Warsh committed to selling those assets if confirmed. The “Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?” market sits at 58% YES.
Warsh’s pledge addressed concerns over potential conflicts of interest. The April 30 market shows odds increasing by 15% following the hearing. With 10 days left until market resolution, traders are pricing in a growing expectation that the transparency commitment improves his confirmation chances.
Liquidity in this market remains low, with no significant trading volume over the last 24 hours. Small trades can therefore sway the odds considerably. Warsh’s commitment to sell his assets may prompt further movement if additional statements from the Senate Banking Committee or President Trump emerge.
Warsh’s pledge helps, but confirmation is far from certain. Traders are factoring in potential hurdles including Democratic opposition and unresolved probes. At 58¢, a YES share pays $1 if confirmed, a 1.72x return. That price implies traders see a better-than-coin-flip chance of confirmation, but substantial doubt remains.
Watch for shifts in stance from key senators like Tim Scott or Thom Tillis, and any official endorsements or retractions from President Trump. These could move the market sharply as the confirmation date approaches.
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Epstein Client List Released In 2025 372| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 72% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 92% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
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